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April 2023 S&P 500 Predictions and Trades

Updated: Mar 13, 2023



  • Month’s Theme: We’ll successfully turn a resistance level into new support. There’s also a rally into an important peak and an opportunity to open a short position in the midst of that rally.


  • Behavior Around the High: We’ll meet a key resistance level at the month’s high. We’ll decline off of that with consecutively lower spikes up on the way down. We’ll likely have the month’s high on the 21st.


  • Behavior Around the Low: A pretty significant decline into the month’s low. The lowest low is most likely going to take place somewhere between the 12th and the 14th.


  • Trade Opportunities:

    • An opportunity to open a short position at an overbought peak or crest on the 5th or the 6th. I would hold that short position until midday on the 13th.

    • An opportunity to open a long position on the 13th. I would close that position on the 19th or the 20th.

    • An opportunity to open a long position for a day trade on the 13th in the midst of a sharp decline through multiple support levels.

    • An opportunity to open a short position on the 17th.



Overview



Week One (4/3-4/7)


On April 3rd, we’ll have a failed attempt to break through key resistance followed by a decline through key support. We’ll then establish new support. We’ll have a breakout where we’ll move into a prominent high on a one-month scale on the 5th. We’ll sell off of a crest to and through support on the 5th. We’ll then have a U-shaped reversal and come back to reuse that support level as support. On the 6th, we’ll be at an overbought crest or peak. We’ll decline and continue declining into the 7th.



Week Two (4/10-4/14)


We’ll decline through multiple support levels on the 10th. There’s a bit of a rally out of that low into another near overbought crest or peak on the 11th. We’ll decline into a prominent trough on the 12th. There’s also a bit of a rally on the 12th but it does end and we’ll decline into what looks to be the lowest low for the month on the 13th. We’ll likely open a bit higher on the 14th where we turn a resistance level into support, at least momentarily. We’ll then decline pretty hard.



Week Three (4/17-4/21)


There’s a U-shaped dip and a bit of a rally on the 17th that offers the opportunity to open a short position. On the 18th, we’ll have a decline in the midst of sideways rotation where we’ll revisit a support level. There’s a notable move to the upside into a key resistance level that’s important on the scale of more than a one-month chart on the 19th. That’s followed by a rally along a diagonal trend line that increases with momentum moving into the 20th and 21st. We’ll decline with consecutively lower spikes up on the way down on the 21st. That decline continues over the weekend.



Week Four (4/24-4/28)


The decline on the 21st continues into a notable drop on the 24th. There’s a peak or crest midday and we’ll decline pretty hard from that on the 24th. On the 25th, we’ll have a significant move to the upside that will stand out on a one-month chart. This may be the biggest move to the upside for the month. That move to the upside will bring us to a crest or peak on the 26th. We’ll then have three pokes through the same price level followed by a sharp decline. On the 27th, we’ll reach either the highest high for the month or the same high as the 21st. On the 28th, there’s a sharp dip within a period of volatility.



Sneak Preview


In May, we’ll have the cessation of a bullish trend early in the month and a sharp decline through multiple support levels throughout the month.



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