Month’s Theme: A significant opportunity standing out on a one-year scale. It’s crossed with the revisiting of a support level that was recently a passed opportunity.
Behavior Around the High: We’ll establish support at the high.
Behavior Around the Low: A failed attempt to break through key resistance on a multi-day scale followed a decline through key support taking us into the low.
Exclusive Trade Opportunities for Subscribers:
An opportunity to open a short position on the 4th in the midst of a rally. You could close that position the morning of the 5th.
An opportunity to open a long position for a day trade at a low the morning of the 5th and close it toward the end of the day.
A fast, sudden move higher on either the 6th or the 7th offers an opportunity to open a short position.
Price change on the 12th offers an opportunity to play both sides of the market.
An opportunity to open a long position at a low toward the end of the day on the 12th.
An opportunity to open a short position after a move to the upside on the 26th.
Overview
On the 1st, there’s a key resistance level highlighted where we should see volume and volatility kind of flatten out.
There’s a notable move on the 4th and a rally that offers an opportunity to open a short position. I would close that position the morning of the 5th. I would then get into a long position at that low for a day trade. I would exit that toward the end of the day. There’s either a gap down overnight or a sideways-fluctuating decline on the 6th. There’s a fast, sudden move higher either on the 6th or on the 7th that will take us into a high. I would open a short position after that move higher. There’s a big move higher the morning of the 8th as well as a speaker in the morning on the 8th. That speech should not be relied upon. There’s a move to the downside into a trough at the end of the day.
On the 11th, there’s a notable reversal and we’ll revisit a support level in the midst of a sharp drop. There’s a lot of price change and an important resistance level on the 12th. That price change will offer an opportunity to play both sides of the market. There’s another lowest low thus far on the 12th with a trough toward the end of the day that offers an opportunity to open a long position. On the 13th, there’s a big move to the upside where we’ll turn resistance into new support. You could close part of the long position after that move up. On the 14th, we’ll have three pokes through the same price level followed by a sharp decline. If we push the upper end of a range higher on the 15th you could close the rest of the long position.
On the 18th, there’s a significant move higher out of a trough. On the 19th, we’ll have a gap down followed by a move from the bottom of a range to the top of a range. We’ll decline again on the 20th where we’ll meet a lowest low thus far in a trough. There’s a prominent move out of that low followed by a full retracement back down to that low on the 21st. There’s a peak or crest on the cusp of the 21st/22nd and I’m advised to be cautious of tricky chart behavior around that time. We’ll likely have a lowest low for the month on the 22nd.
The market is closed on the 25th. On the 26th, there’s a notable move to the upside reaching for distant resistance that offers an opportunity to open a short position. On the 27th, we’ll have a notable move to the downside to and through support to meet a second support level and then we’ll rotate sideways along that support. That sideways rotation will take us into the 28th where we’ll then have a rally that increases with momentum moving forward in time. There’s likely a gap down on the 29th into another low for the month followed by an improbable move higher out of that low.
Sneak Preview
The commencement of a rally in January 2024.