Updated: May 25
Month’s Theme: A sideways fluctuating rally that precedes a decline. That’s crossed with a rally that stands out on a one-month chart. There’s also a notable decline off of a peak or crest, likely in the second week.
Behavior Around the High: The definitive completion of a rally.
Behavior Around the Low: We should see a sideways S-formation.
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An opportunity to open a long position late on the 5th or early on the 6th. I would hold that long position until the 19th.
An opportunity to open a short position early in the morning on the 11th. I would exit that short position when we hit a key support level.
Also on the 11th, there’s an opportunity to open a long position after exiting the short position. I would exit that short position when we hit a key resistance level that we failed to break through previously.
An opportunity to open a short position as protection early in the afternoon on the 19th. That short position could be closed early in the morning on the 24th.
An opportunity to open a long position for a day trade on the 26th that involves some sideways rotation with equal amounts of bulls and bears trading. I would close that long position at a high toward the end of the day.
An opportunity on the 27th that is unclear at this time.
Week One (4/3-4/6)
On April 3rd, we’ll have some erratic behavior back and forth through the same price level. In the midst of that erratic behavior, we’ll revisit a crest that was recently a past opportunity. There’s a bit of a decline into the low, likely toward the end of the day. That low may be a lowest low for the month. On the 4th, we’ll rally into a key support level, and then from that support level we’ll decline with consecutively lower spikes up on the way down. Out of the low, there’s a significant move to the upside to reach for a distant resistance level on a one-day chart. On the 5th, we’ll have an unexpected move to the upside and a trade opportunity at the end of the day. There’s a gap down on the morning of the 6th where we’ll have a lowest low again. We’ll have some sideways rotation and then establish support at that low. That’s followed by a significant move to the upside on the 6th. The market is closed on the 7th.
Week Two (4/10-4/14)
We may come back to another low for the month after we decline through multiple support levels on the 10th. There’s a gap up on the 11th with a day’s high and a prominent crest or peak early in the day. We’ll have a U-shaped dip and then come back up to the same price level on the 12th. There’s a trade opportunity in the midst of a failed attempt to break through key resistance. We’ll then decline through key support. On the 13th, there’s some sideways rotation along a key support level and a sharp dip that stands out within that sideways rotation. That dip takes us to revisit a support level that was recently an opportunity. On the 14th, we’ll bump up against resistance sideways and break through resistance. There’s a sharp drop over the weekend.
Week Three (4/17-4/21)
There’s a significant move to the upside on the 17th that pushes the upper end of a range higher. There’s some kind of agreement between two leaders or a merger on the 18th with a pop and drop. On the 19th, we’ll have a rally that offers an opportunity to open a short position. The 19th is where we’ll most likely see the highest high for April. On the 20th, we may have another high, and there’s an important resistance level that it looks like we’ll flatten out at. There’s a halting of a bullish trend on the 21st marked by a sharp decline through a key support level on a one-month scale.
Week Four (4/24-4/28)
There’s a good trade opportunity early in the morning on the 24th within severely oversold territory. There’s a significant move higher moving into the 25th. On the 26th, there’s a day trade opportunity. We’ll rotate sideways along key support and then rise to meet the nearest resistance. We’ll then fall back down and continue rotating sideways. On the 27th, we may have another high and an important trade opportunity. We’ll have three pokes through the same price level on the 28th followed by a sharp decline.
In May, my sense is that there will be a notable and unexpected decline. Price movement looks pretty mixed early on.
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