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March 2023 S&P 500 Predictions and Trades (RATED)

Updated: Apr 2, 2023

**Accuracy rating update: 97% or 41.5/43 predictions correct**



Month’s Theme: A prominent move into a notable trade opportunity on a one-year chart and a sharp decline.



Behavior Around the High: A fast sudden move to the upside to take us into the highest high.



Behavior Around the Low: A notable reversal that will stand out on at least a one-month chart.



Trade Opportunities:

  • An opportunity to open a long position at key support for a day trade on the 2nd. I would close that toward the end of the day at a prominent crest or peak.

  • An opportunity to open a short position early in the day on the 6th at a prominent crest. I would close that position at a prominent trough at the end of the day on the 7th or at the end of the day on the 8th.

  • An opportunity to open a long position in the midst of a decline on the 10th. I would sell that position at the high on the 14th.

  • An opportunity to open a short position on the 14th or 15th that you could close on the 16th or the 20th, or even hold it until later in the month.

  • An opportunity to open up a short position at the high on the 14th. I would close that position at a low on the 24th or the 25th.

  • An opportunity to open a short position toward the end of the day on the 28th. You could close that short position at a key technical price level on the 30th.



Overview



Week One (3/1-3/3)

Around the 1st, there’s a rally into a key resistance level on the scale of a one-month chart. We’ll then decline with consecutively lower spikes up on the way down. We’ll have sideways fluctuations into a key support on the scale of a one-month chart on the 2nd. From that support level, there’s a notable move to the upside. There’s a significant trade opportunity on a one-month chart. There’s a prominent crest or peak toward the end of the day on the 2nd or on the 3rd. On the 3rd, there’s a peak that’s easily missed that we’ll sell off from through multiple support levels.

Week Two (3/6-3/10)

On the 6th, there are more sideways fluctuations and another prominent crest that’s easily missed and a decline through multiple support levels toward the end of the day. On the 7th, congress is highlighted. There’s also a rally along a diagonal trend line early in the day that ends with a fast, sudden move higher and a break down through that diagonal trend line. There’s a peak at the end of the day that’s easily missed followed by a sharp decline through multiple support levels. On the 8th, we’ll rally along a diagonal trend line early in the day that ends with a fast, sudden move higher and a breakdown through that diagonal trend line with increasing volatility on the way down. There’s three pokes through the same price level toward the end of the day and a sharp drop. There’s also a prominent trough for the month on the 8th and/or on the 9th. We’ll have another prominent peak or crest on the 10th after a significant move to the upside. That’s followed by a sharp drop into a prominent trough.

Week Three (3/13-3/17)

On the 13th, there’s a crest early in the day that was recently a past opportunity. On the 14th, there’s a prominent high. There’s a drop toward the end of the day. We may see the high again on the 15th. We’ll revisit a support level that was recently a past opportunity in the midst of a sharp decline on the 16th. Around the 17th, we’ll move higher through resistance, stay above it briefly, and then we’ll break back down through the same price level. There’s a prominent crest on the 17th.

Week Four (3/20-3/24)

On the 20th, there’s a failed attempt to break through key resistance both early in the day and later in the day. That's followed by a sharp decline through key support on the scale of a one-month chart. Into the 21st, we’ll decline through support to meet a second support level and then rotate alongside that support. We’ll continue rotating sideways on the 22nd. Toward the end of the day on the 23rd, there’s a crest that we sell off from down to and through a support level. We’ll do a U-shaped reversal below that support level and then move back up to reuse it as support. On the 23rd or 24th, we’ll have what appears to be the lowest low for the month.

Week Five (3/27-3/31)

On the 27th, we’ll rally higher into a prominent crest or peak. There’s sideways rotation along key support. On the 28th, we’ll rally along a diagonal trend line into a key resistance level, we’ll break through that key resistance to meet a second resistance level and then pull back to somewhere between those two price levels. There’s a key price level toward the end of the day on the 28th or on the 29th. On the 30th, we’ll decline through key support on the scale of a one-month chart. We’ll rally along a diagonal trend line early in the day with another decline through key support on the 30th. At the end of the 31st, we’ll rally along a diagonal trend line again.





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