Month’s theme: A big move higher and some volatility.
Behavior around the high: A big move out of the high to the downside.
Behavior around the low: I’m advised to be cautious with trading around the low.
Trade opportunities:
Three opportunities on the 10th.
An opportunity to open puts on the 19th.
Advised to open up protection on the 27th.
Week One (10/3 to 10/7):
A relatively bullish first week. On October 3rd, congress is highlighted, and there’s one local high on a one-day chart. From that high, there will be a notable decline on a one-day chart. On October 4th, we have erratic back and forth behavior through the same price level, and in the midst of that price level, we revisit a recent past opportunity at a crest. There’s a notable drop between October 4th and October 5th. On the 5th, there are some notable price swings. We attempt to break through key resistance, but we fail to do so and subsequently break down through key support. We’ll see the same pattern on October 6th, however we do eventually move higher into or on October 7th. A high for the week will likely be on the 7th.
Week Two (10/10 to 10/14):
On October 10th, we’ll see two local highs on a one-day chart. There is a pretty substantial decline out of both of those highs. There are three trade opportunities here: the first involves a move higher along a diagonal trend line and a break through horizontal resistance to meet a secondary resistance, and then pulling back to somewhere between those two price levels. The second opportunity involves bullish price swings. The last opportunity is in the form of three criss crosses through the same price level, and the third cross will likely confirm a bullish trend. We’ll see a pretty sharp decline into October 11th. We’ll then have some bullish price swings out of the low. The move out of the low will be from the bottom of a range to the top of that range and will stand out on a multi-day chart. On October 12th, we successfully turn resistance into new support on a one-month chart. On October 13th, an agreement between two leaders is highlighted. There’s also a prominent trough for the month on the 13th. We’ll open up higher on October 14th. We’ll also see sideways fluctuations with a bearish trend preceding a rally and likely end at a low for the week.
Week Three (10/17-10/21):
On October 17th, there’s likely a gap up early in the morning. We’ll have a decline to and through a support level to meet a secondary support and then rotation sideways along that support level. We continue rotation along support on October 18th. There’s a local high on the 18th that will stand out on a one-day chart. On October 19th, we’ll see another prominent crest or high for the month. This marks a good opportunity to open puts. Between October 19th and October 20th, there’s three pokes through the same price level, and after that third poke, we’ll break down with a sharp decline through a key support level. It looks like we’ll have a continuation of the decline on the 21st.
Week Four (10/24-10/28 and 10/31):
On October 24th, there’s a bit of a rally in the morning marked by a fast move to the upside followed by a break down through a diagonal trend line. This is a good opportunity to close the puts opened on the 19th. There’s a big move higher to reach a crest on October 25th. We’ll see a prominent trough on October 26th. On October 27, we’ll likely see another high at a crest for the month. I’m advised to open up protection on the 27th because of an incoming drop. On October 28th and into the 31st, we continue bouncing along the support level that we were attempting to establish.
Sneak preview for November:
We have the completion of a bullish trend early in the month.