Updated: May 26
Year’s Theme: Three pokes through the same price level followed by a sharp decline after the third poke. That behavior is crossed with bullish price swings.
Behavior Around the High: A fast, sudden move higher into the year’s high.
Behavior Around the Low: We’ll first establish support at a key support level and then rotate sideways along that support level. We’ll then have a notable move to the upside on a one-year scale followed by the establishment of support at a higher level.
In early April, there’s a sharp decline off of a crest or peak around the first week. There’s a period of volatility around April’s high and a sharp drop that stands out on a multi-day chart. The low that we see in April will be higher than the low that we see in May. At the end of April, we’ll have selling from a support level down to and through support to meet a secondary support level. We’ll bounce along that support level for a bit and then break down through multiple support levels into a month’s low. We may have one of the highest highs for the year in April.
In early May, we’ll have sideways rotation along key support on a multi-day chart. We’ll rise to meet the nearest resistance and then fall back down to continue rotating along key support. There’s an important price level highlighted near the May low. There’s also a decline off of the May high which is a prominent crest or peak for the year. Toward the end of the month, there’s a rally out of a prominent trough into a prominent crest that offers an opportunity to open a short position. We’ll then sell down to and through support and do a U-shaped reversal below that support. We’ll then come back up and reuse that support level as support.
There’s a holding pattern followed by a pop and drop near June’s high. In late June, we’ll decline to and through support, meet a secondary support level, and then we’ll rotate sideways along that support. The low for June is in close time proximity to a prominent high for the year. That prominent high forms when we rally along a diagonal trend line. That rally ends with a fast, sudden move higher followed by a breakdown through that diagonal trend line with increasing volatility on the way down. The low for the year may be around June.
There’s a rally in early July. The July high and low are within close time proximity to each other. We’ll decline to a key support level that we recently visited once with a pop and drop. We’ll see a low in July that we’ve visited before after a decline that increases with momentum moving forward in time. There’s a pretty significant price swing on the scale of a one-year chart around the low for July.
In August, there’s a decline along a diagonal trend line increasing with momentum moving into a low for the month. At that low, we’ll have a key price level that will act as a good mean point between a bullish and bearish position. The August low will be higher than both the June and July low. There should be a significant move to the upside on a multi-day chart in the beginning of the third week of August taking us to a prominent crest or peak. We’ll see that crest or peak again in the beginning of the fourth week of September. There’s some sideways rotation along key support that increases with bullish momentum as we move forward in time near the end of August.
Somewhere around the cusp of August and September, we’ll successfully turn resistance into support. From that support, we’ll decline through multiple support levels in early September. There’s an unexpected move to the upside out of the September low. We’ll have bearish price swings near the end of September. There are some price swings and a sharp decline through multiple support levels that takes us into a prominent trough on the cusp of September and October.
Out of the trough in late September/early October, there’s a rally that takes us to a highest high for the year in late October or early November where we rally into a crest. There’s a key reversal around the high. There’s a key support level around the low for October which offers a trade opportunity. There’s a decline off of the high at the end of the month into early November.
Out of the decline that starts in October, there’s a move from the bottom of a range to the top of a range in the second week of November. That will bring us to the highest high again. We’ll push the upper end of a range higher (at least temporarily) in the midst of a rally that increases with momentum moving forward in time. There’s a notable price swing near the low. There’s another significant price swing near a crest or peak on the cusp of November and December.
There’s a U-shaped dip around the December high and a notable decline into the December low that will stand out on a year-to-day chart. It looks like the December low is definitively lower than the November low. Out of that decline that takes us to the December low, there’s an almost irrational move to the upside in late December that reaches for distant resistance.
We’ll decline into 2024, and then out of that decline we’ll have a rally along a diagonal trend line.