Updated: May 25
Month’s Theme: A failed attempt to break through key resistance on a multi-day scale. We’ll then turn around and decline through key support. That behavior is crossed with a rally along a diagonal trend line that ends with a fast, sudden move higher, followed by a decline through that diagonal trend line with increasing volatility on the way down.
Behavior Around the High: There are likely multiple false tops or bottoms or some sort of misdirection.
Behavior Around the Low: A move higher through key resistance on a multi-day scale. We’ll stay above that resistance briefly and then break back down through the same price level with a full retracement.
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An opportunity for a day trade to open a long position on the 3rd around a key support level that’s highlighted.
An opportunity to open a short position at the high on the 3rd. I would close that short position on the 11th.
An opportunity to open a short position on the 19th in the midst of a peak or crest. I would hold that short position into early May.
I’m advised to hold protection in the midst of a rally on the 28th.
Week One (4/3-4/6)
On April 3rd, there’s a key support level that’s highlighted. We’ll open higher on the 4th with a notable move the night before. We’ll move even higher into the end of the day on the 4th where we’ll have a peak or crest. We’ll then sell off pretty notably from that peak or crest through multiple support levels. On the 5th, there’s some sort of fake out or shake out and a resistance level near the low that’s highlighted. There’s a big move toward the end of the day that’s highlighted. On the 6th, we’ll come back to a support level and rotate sideways along support. Toward the end of the day, there appears to be a breakout of some sort. The market is closed on the 7th.
Week Two (4/10-4/14)
On the 10th, it looks like we’ll probably open lower at a prominent trough. There’s a near overbought crest that’s highlighted on the 10th that we’ll sell off from notably. On the 11th, out of that decline there’s a notable move higher pushing for distant resistance, even in the face of seemingly overwhelming headwinds. On the 12th, there’s a peak or a crest that will stand out on a multi-day chart. We’ll sell down from that peak or crest and there’s a trough on the cusp of the 12th and the 13th. There’s a crest on the 13th from which we’ll sell down to and through support momentarily. We’ll then do a U-shaped reversal and come back up to reuse that support. There’s an even lower price level on the 14th in the morning. We’ll then rally along a diagonal trend line that will take us into the 17th.
Week Three (4/17-4/21)
We’ll rally over the weekend into the 17th and then we’ll push the upper end of a range higher. There’s a fast, sudden move to the upside that marks the end of that rally along the diagonal trend line. We’ll break down through that diagonal trend line between the 17th and somewhere on the 18th. There’s a sideways S-formation decline from resistance all of the way down to support, back up to resistance, and then back down to support on the 18th. There’s a rally on the 19th that offers an opportunity. We’ll also have a prominent crest and a prominent trough on the 19th. On the 20th, there’s a fast, sudden move to the upside and a rally that increases with momentum moving into the end of the week (the 21st).
Week Four (4/24-4/28)
On the 24th, there’s a volatile decline off of a peak or crest at the beginning of the day. That decline ends on the 25th with a fast, sudden move higher. That move takes us off of the low and creates a peak or crest at a resistance level. We’ll stay above that resistance level briefly and then break back down through that same price level shortly thereafter. On the 26th, there’s a strong resistance level that we’ll bump up against and fail to break through. There’s a decline through multiple support levels on the 27th. On the 28th, there’s an almost irrational move to the upside that reaches for a distant resistance level.
In May, we’ll see multiple failed attempts to break through key resistance on a multi-day chart.