Updated: Mar 13
Month’s Theme: An improbable and unexpected move to the upside.
Behavior Around the High: A decision between two leaders that creates a peak. We’ll then decline from that peak.
Behavior Around the Low: A notable move on a one-month scale into the low and out of the low.
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An opportunity to open a long position in the midst of a decline on the 5th. I would close that position early in the day on the 6th.
There’s a day trade opportunity on the 5th in the midst of a decline. I would close that position toward the end of the day.
A trade opportunity to open a short position at a high on the 10th. You could close that short position on the 18th or the 19th at a low.
An opportunity to open a short position at a peak on the 14th. I would close that short position in the midst of a decline on the 15th. You could also hold that position into the 18th or 19th.
An opportunity to open a short position toward the end of the day on the 25th. I would close that on the 27th.
An opportunity to open a long position toward the end of the day on the 19th. My sense is to hold that position until a prominent crest or an important technical price level on the 31st.
Week One (3/1-3/4)
On March 1st, there’s a notable move to the upside, even in the face of seemingly overwhelming headwinds. There’s likely a prominent crest and a sideways S-formation on the 2nd. On the 3rd, there’s a significant move higher out of a low. A rally along a diagonal trend line ends with a fast, sudden move higher. That’s followed by a decline through that diagonal trend line with increasing volatility on the way down. On the 4th, there’s a move higher through key resistance on a one-month chart. We’ll stay above that resistance level briefly and then break back down through the same price level shortly thereafter.
Week Two (3/5-3/11)
On the 5th, there’s a key support level that’s revisited when we have a period of sideways rotation and a sharp drop within that period of sideways rotation. On the 6th, we’ll have the halting of a bullish trend that’s marked by a sharp decline through a key support level on the scale of a one-month chart. On the 7th, we’ll establish a solid foundation of support. On the 8th, there’s a notable move to the upside that will stand out on a one-month chart. There’s a prominent crest early on the 9th and an even higher crest later in the day. There’s a month’s high either on the 9th or the 10th (but more likely on the 10th). We’ll have some price swings on the 9th and into the 10th where we establish support. The 10th is likely the highest high for the month. On the 11th, we’ll likely open lower. That’s followed by a fast, sudden move higher.
Week Three (3/12-3/18)
On the 12th, we’ll decline into a prominent low for the year and establish support at that low. There’s also a notable move to the upside to successfully establish new support at a higher level. On the 13th, we’ll decline from that support level and break down through multiple support levels. On the 14th, we’ll have a rally along a diagonal trend line and break through horizontal resistance, meet secondary resistance, and then pull back to somewhere between those two price levels. There’s a prominent trough or low on the 15th. On the 16th, we’ll have erratic behavior back and forth through the same price level confirming a bullish trend. In the midst of that erratic behavior, we’ll see both a crest and a low. On the 17th, we may come up against that crest again, attempt to break through key resistance, and then decline through key support. There’s a move to the upside pushing the upper end of a range higher out of that decline on the 18th.
Week Four (3/19-3/25)
On the 19th, we’ll meet resistance and we’ll break down from that resistance with consecutively lower spikes up on the way down into a low. We’ll reestablish key support on the 20th. On the 21st, there’s a notable move to the upside. There’s a breakout and brief peak that’s easily missed on either the 20th or the 21st. We’ll decline through multiple support levels from that peak into the 22nd. On the 23rd, there’s a notable move to the upside out of oversold territory that stands out on a one-month chart. That’s followed by a decline back down through a support level that we recently broke down through once before on the 24th. On the 25th, there’s a prominent trough and a prominent high. There are multiple failed attempts to break through key resistance on the 25th.
Week Five (3/26-3/31)
There’s a prominent crest between the 25th and the 26th. I’m advised against chasing a rally on the 26th. On the 27th, we’ll decline through a support level, meet a second support level, and then rotate sideways along that support. On the 28th, there’s an intentional fake out or shake out of some kind. On the 29th, there are three crisscrosses through the same price level confirming a bullish trend. On the 30th, there’s a notable decline that will stand out on a one-month chart. On the 31st, there’s a significant resistance level that’s highlighted, likely on more than a one-month scale.
In April, we’ll see three pokes through the same price level followed by a sharp decline following the third poke.