Month’s Theme: A notable rally into a key resistance level followed by a sharp decline.
Behavior Around the High: A decline off of the high that offers an opportunity to open a long position.
Behavior Around the Low: A rally out of the low that increases with momentum moving forward in time.
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The most solid opportunity is to open a long position on the 24th or the 25th. I would sell that position at a high in April.
Overview
Week One (3/1-3/4)
On March 1st, there’s an important support level established. On the 2nd, there’s a notable move higher in the midst of a period of volatility. On the 3rd, there’s an intentional fake out or a shake out of some kind, and it looks like there’s a prominent trough or low at the end of the day on the 3rd or early on the 4th. There’s a sharp decline off of a key resistance level on a multi-day scale on the 4th.
Week Two (3/5-3/11)
On the 5th, there’s a big, improbable move to the upside. There’s a prominent peak or crest and a sharp drop into a prominent trough on the 6th. There’s most likely another prominent trough at support after selling down from a crest on the 7th. We’ll have a U-shaped reversal below that support and then come back up to reuse that support level as support. There’s a gap up overnight into the 8th. There’s a key resistance level highlighted at a prominent crest or peak early in the day on the 8th. We’ll then fall from that prominent crest into a trough or low on the cusp of the 8th and 9th. There’s also a gap up between the 8th and the 9th. We’ll likely open higher on the 9th and then there’s another decline from a key resistance level. There’s a big move to the upside on the cusp of the 9th and the 10th. On the 11th, there’s a failed attempt to break through key resistance followed by a decline through key support.
Week Three (3/12-3/18)
On the 12th, we’ll probably decline through key support after failing to break through key resistance. There’s another prominent trough or low early on the 12th and sideways rotation along key support. We’ll rise to meet the nearest resistance and then fall back down and continue to rotate along that support level. On the 13th, there’s another key support level highlighted. There’s some more sideways rotation on the 14th. On the 15th, there are three crisscrosses back and forth through the same price level confirming a bullish trend. On the 16th, we’ll establish a higher support level. The 17th has the highest probability of being the highest high for the month. There’s some erratic behavior back and forth through the same price level, in the midst of which we’ll revisit a crest that was recently a past opportunity. There’s a prominent trough early in the morning on the 18th. There’s a move to the upside out of that trough into a near overbought crest or peak.
Week Four (3/19-3/25)
On the 19th, we’ll sell down from that overbought crest or peak. There’s another prominent crest or peak on the 20th. There’s also a U-shaped dip on the 20th. There’s a sideways S-formation within a channel on the 21st. There’s also a prominent move to the upside on the 21st. We’ll see decline and a pop and drop on the 22nd. On the 23rd, there’s a bit of a rally, but that rally ends on the cusp of the 23rd and 24th. There are multiple failed attempts to break through key resistance and a sharp decline into a lowest low on the 24th or the 25th. There’s a big move out of that low on the 25th.
Week Five (3/26-3/31)
There’s a prominent crest or peak on the 26th followed by another notable decline from the 26th into the 27th. On the 27th, we’ll have some price swings with equal amounts of bulls and bears trading. There’s a prominent crest, trough, and then another prominent crest around the 27th or the 28th. On the 29th, we’ll establish key support on a multi-day scale and that’s followed by a prominent move to the upside. There’s a period of sideways rotation followed by a fast, sudden move higher on the 30th. There’s a sharp decline through multiple support levels on the 31st.
Sneak Preview
In April, there’s a decline that offers an opportunity to open a long position. There’s also either the same price level or a higher price level than March’s high.