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2023 One Year S&P 500 Predictions

Updated: Nov 21, 2022



  • Year’s theme: Likely we’ll see the start of a rally. There are also several notable breakouts highlighted throughout the year.


  • Behavior around the high: Bearish price swings and a sharp drop that will stand out on a one-year chart.


  • Behavior around the low: A significant trade opportunity around the low. We’ll also have a move higher through a key resistance level and then break back down through that price level off of the low.


  • Trade opportunities:

    • In January there’s a significant trade opportunity around the month’s high.

    • A swing trade opportunity around the low in April.

    • A decline into the month’s low in May offers a significant opportunity to open up a long position.

    • A swing trade opportunity around the high in June.

    • A swing trade opportunity around the low in July involving a period of sideways fluctuations with a bullish trend that precedes a decline.

    • An opportunity to open up a short position in the midst of a rally in July.

    • Another swing trade opportunity in July that involves a period of volatility and a sharp dip that will stand out on a one-month chart.

    • There’s a swing trade opportunity around the month’s high in October that involves a period of volatility with a sharp dip that will stand out on at least a one-month chart.



Overview



January:


In early January, it looks like we decline out of a crest after the completion of a rally. There’s a trade opportunity around the month’s high. The low for the month is likely in the second week, at the very end of the month, or there are lows at both points. We decline from a support level down to a second support level, we’ll bounce along that support level for a bit, and then we’ll break down through multiple support levels on the scale of at least a one-month chart. It looks like there’s the beginning of a rally around that low. It’s a prominent low that will stand out on a one-year chart.


February:


There’s a rally in early February. That rally along a diagonal trend line completes with a fast sudden move to the upside, followed by a decline through that diagonal trend line with increasing volatility on the way down. We sell from a year’s high in February. We’ll likely see that high in the third week. There’s a notable fake out around a crest or high where we attempt to establish support. We’ll then decline further, and it looks like this will create another prominent low at the end of the month or in early March.


March:


There’s a lot of price movement the first week of March. There are multiple failed attempts to break through key resistance on a one-year chart. We’ll have some sideways rotation around the month’s high. It looks like a significant rally will commence around the month’s low. This will likely be another important low for the year. There will be some sideways rotation along support, and then there’s a fast, sudden move higher, likely in the third week. In late March, we have volatility that increases as we move forward into the end of the month. We have another prominent low, although this is in the midst of a bullish trend, so the lows will be consecutively higher as we move forward.


April:


In early April, we’ll decline from a crest with sideways fluctuations with a bearish trend. In mid-April, it looks like we’ll have a sharp drop into another month’s low. There’s a good swing trade opportunity around the low. The trade opportunity involves a sharp drop within a period of volatility. We’ll then have erratic back and forth through the same price level in late April, and it looks like there’s also a breakout there to the upside. Eventually we hit a key resistance level on a multi-year chart, and we break down with consecutively lower spikes up on the way down which brings us to another trough in early May.


May:


There’s a sharp decline from a peak or crest that will stand out on at least a one-month chart. We move into another prominent trough for the year after there’s a failed attempt to break through key resistance around the month’s high for May. Technicals will lead us to believe that we’ll break out through that price level, but we’ll turn around and decline through key support on at least a one-month chart. The decline into the month’s low offers a significant opportunity to open up a long position. In late May, there’s a notable move to the upside out of a decline. I’m advised to avoid risk and possibly open up protection around this time. We’ll possibly see a brief highest high for the year thus far around this time. This could be easily missed because off of that high there’s a decline through multiple support levels on a one-year chart.


June:


There’s a swing trade opportunity around the month’s high. This may be the next highest high for the year. There is a period of volatility and three pokes through the same price level around the month’s high and a sharp drop after the third poke. It looks like we’ll move into another prominent trough for the year in late June. Bullish price swings will bring us out of that trough.


July:


There’s a bit of decline that increases with momentum as we move into mid-month. There’s a bit of a U-shaped dip around the month’s low. There’s a swing trade opportunity around the month’s low, involving a period of sideways fluctuations with a bullish trend that precedes a decline. In late July, we’ll have a notable rally higher that will stand out on a one-year chart. This rally, which appears to move into the same highest high we had in June, offers the opportunity to open up a short position. There’s also a breakout in the midst of that rally higher in late July. There’s another swing trade opportunity at this point involving a period of volatility with a sharp dip that will stand out on a one-month chart. It looks like this rally to the upside will continue into August.


August:


There’s a breakout that will stand out in the midst of the rally into the high. There’s an opportunity to open up a short position around this time. The high for the month forms after a failed attempt to break through key resistance on a one-month chart. This is followed by a breakdown through key support on at least a one-month chart. There are two swing trade opportunities: one opportunity is near a crest, likely the third or fourth week of August.


September:


We’ll see a rally that increases with momentum moving into mid-September. There’s a swing trade opportunity involving a period of sideways fluctuations with a bullish trend that precedes a decline near the high in September. We rise to meet the nearest critical resistance, we bump off of it and then decline to continue rotating alongside support. The month’s low is in close proximity to a prominent crest for the year. In late September, there’s a key cash-in opportunity at a significant trough for the year. This will likely be around an attempt to establish a critical support level on at least a one-year chart. There’s a crest toward the end of the month after a continued decline. The year’s low may be around this time or around early October.


October:


In early October, we have a period of sideways rotation along key support and a sharp dip that will stand out on at least a one-month chart. That dip will take us down to a support level that was recently a past opportunity. There’s a lot of price movement to meet the month’s high in October. There’s also a cash-out opportunity at the month’s high and an opportunity to open up some protection. There’s a swing trade opportunity around the month’s high as well that involves a period of volatility with a sharp dip that will stand out on at least a one-month chart. It looks like we have a significant move and possibly a breakout to reach the month’s high for October. The high is in close proximity to a prominent trough for the year. There’s a significant decline through multiple support levels that will stand out on at least a one-month chart to reach the month’s low. Toward the end of the month, there’s a notable move higher out of the low.


November:


In early November, there’s a prominent move to the upside out of a prominent trough for the year. This move higher is followed by a full retracement of that move which creates a peak or crest somewhere around the first or second week of November. Out of the month’s high, it looks like we fall from a support level to another critical support level on at least a one-month chart, and then we rotate sideways along that support level. Around the month’s low (which is also a prominent low for the year), there’s sideways S-rotation, so we have a decline from a resistance to a support and a reversal with a full retracement back to resistance. Near the end of November, there’s a significant decline through multiple support levels on at least a one-month chart. There’s a false breakout near the end of November.


December:


In early December, we have a period of sideways rotation that is likely bullish. There is also the start of another rally and a breakout on a one-year chart. I’m advised to be cautious around the month’s high which will be another prominent high for the year. There’s a critical resistance level met here. The low for December is within close proximity to that prominent high. The low forms when we hit resistance and then we decline with increasing volatility as we move forward in time. It looks like there will be multiple false tops or some sort of trickery around the high. Near the end of the month, there’s a fast, sudden move higher.



Sneak preview


We push the upper end of a range higher on the scale of a multi-year chart.




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