Month’s theme: Sideways rotation along an important support level.
Behavior around the high: A notable drop off of the high through multiple support levels.
Behavior around the low: The low will form after a notable decline.
Trade opportunities:
In the midst of the decline around the low there’s an opportunity to open up a long position.
An opportunity on the 12th.
A swing trade opportunity on the 18th.
An opportunity to open up protection on the 19th.
Week One (8/1-8/5)
Around August 1st or 2nd will likely be the high for the month. There’s a notable move to the upside to reach that high. On August 3rd, we’ll go from that prominent high into a trough. Out of that trough, there’s a notable reversal to the upside that will stand out on a one-month chart. On August 4th, we’ll have two prominent highs. After meeting a resistance level on the 4th, we’ll break down with consecutively lower spikes up on the way down. On August 5th, there’s another prominent trough on a one-month chart. The trough will form after a decline from a notable peak. We also will have some erratic behavior back and forth through the same price level on the 5th. There’s some news or advice highlighted on the 5th around midday, and I’m advised to heed that advice.
Week Two (8/8-8/12)
Early on August 8th, there’s a crest at a day’s high. In the midst of some volatility on the 8th, there’s a sudden dip that will likely bring us to another trough for the month. On the 9th, we move higher but there’s an incoming cooling trend. We’ll also see profit taking from overbought territory on the 9th. On August 10th, we’ll revisit a past problem and have a flight to safety. Around August 11th, there will be some bullish price swings and two local lows on a one-day chart. One of those lows will form after a sharp drop off of a peak. The other low will form after a male leader releases news or makes an announcement. Early on August 12th, there’s a trade opportunity amidst a drop into a prominent trough.
Week 3 (8/15-8/19)
On August 15, we’ll have some sideways rotation along a support level followed by a fast, sudden move higher marking the end of that period of rotation. On August 16th, there’s a sharp drop off of a peak into a month’s trough. On August 17th, there’s a brief high early in the day followed by a sharp drop into a notable decline. Around August 18th, we’ll have a swing trade opportunity in the midst of notable volatility and a fakeout. On August 19th, there’ll be a rally into two local highs and one local low on a one-day chart. The local low will form during sideways fluctuations with a bullish trend that precede a decline. This rally presents an opportunity to open up a short position to protect against long positions. If I were to open up protection here, I’m advised to have the puts expire past the end of the month. I’m also looking to close the swing trade opened on the 18th during a sharp dip within a period of decline on the 19th.
Week Four (8/22-8/26)
On August 22nd, my sense is that we’ll likely open lower than we ended on the 19th. We’ll see two local highs and a big move to the upside to reach a distant resistance level. On August 23rd, we’ll have selling from near overbought territory on the RSI. We’ll also have one prominent high on a one-day chart that forms within a fast, sudden move higher that marks the end of a period of decline. On August 24th, I’m advised to be cautious. It looks like we might have a notable drop early in the morning and we’ll likely decline into the end of the day. Around August 25th, there’s a notable move to the upside, possibly breaking through resistance in the face of seemingly overwhelming headwinds. There’s one local high on the 25th that forms when we have a fast, sudden move to the upside. Around August 26th, we have a move higher that successfully turns resistance into new support.
Week 5 (8/29-8/31)
On August 29th, we may see a crest, but there’s more likely a notable trough. There are also two local lows on a one day chart as well as a local high. There’s a swing trade opportunity on the 29th that involves a sudden dip within a period of decline. One of the local lows involves a leader of nations. The other low involves a decline from a peak. On August 30th, there’s a notable move higher out of a month’s low where we likely push the upper end of a range higher. We move all the way from the bottom of a range to the top of the range on the 31st.
Sneak preview for September:
It looks like we’ll have a lower low. There are three spikes through a resistance level, and on the third spike, there’s a notable move to the downside. I’m advised to open up protection on that third spike.